Richard Laugesen

Research

Currently focused on finding better ways to measure how effectively forecasts improve decisions — forecast value.

More generally I'm interested in water-related risk reduction, around the intersection of model innovation, decision theory, and water resources management. I typically work out of the Bureau of Meteorology and University of Adelaide.

Please reach out — I'm particularly interested in establishing new collaborations and students to advance forecast value.

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Peer-reviewed Publications

  1. Laugesen, R., Thyer, M., McInerney, D., & Kavetski, D. (2026). Software library to quantify the value of forecasts for decision‑making: Case study on sensitivity to damages. Environmental Modelling & Software, 196, 106697. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106697 Journal
  2. Khan, U., Hapuarachchi, H. A. P., Hughes-Miller, Z., Kazemi, H., Moore, R. J., Kabir, A., Bari, M. A., D’Andrea, J., Laugesen, R., Wells, S. C., Cole, S. J., Sunter, P., & Cornish, A. (2025). Distributed and semi-distributed hydrological modelling for catchments draining to the Great Barrier Reef coastline. Hydrology Research (in-press) Journal
  3. Turner, S., Hannaford, J., Barker, L. J., Suman, G., Killeen, A., Armitage, R., Chan, W., Davies, H., Griffin, A., Kumar, A., Dixon, H., Albuquerque, M. T. D., Almeida Ribeiro, N., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Amoussou, E., Arheimer, B., Asano, Y., Berezowski, T., Bodian, A., Dakhlaoui, H., Daňhelka, J., Do, H. X., Ekkawatpanit, C., El Khalki, E. M., Fleig, A. K., Fonseca, R., Giraldo-Osorio, J. D., Goula, A. B. T., Hanel, M., Horton, S., Kan, C., Kingston, D. G., Laaha, G., Laugesen, R., Lopes, W., Mager, S., Rachdane, M., Markonis, Y., Medeiro, L., Midgley, G., Murphy, C., O’Connor, P., Pedersen, A. I., Pham, H. T., Piniewski, M., Renard, B., Saidi, M. E., Schmocker-Fackel, P., Stahl, K., Thyer, M., Toucher, M., Tramblay, Y., Uusikivi, J., Venegas-Cordero, N., Visessri, S., Watson, A., Westra, S., & Whitfield, P. H. (2025). ROBIN: Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection. Nature - Scientific Data, 12, 654. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04907-y Journal
  4. Pickett-Heaps, C. A., Sunter, P., Sharples, W., Pegios, M., Wilson, C., Cornish, A., Laugesen, R., & Carrara, E. (2025). From gridded runoff to streamflow: application of statistical post-processing to generate seasonal streamflow forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (under review). https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1379 Journal
  5. Laugesen, R. (2025). Reference implementation of Relative Utility Value (RUV) to quantify forecast value (v1.0.1). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16398857 Code
  6. Bari, M. A., Khan, U., Amirthanathan, G. E., Tuteja, M., & Laugesen, R. M. (2024). Simulation of gauged and ungauged streamflow of coastal catchments across Australia. Water, 16(4), 527. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16040527 Journal
  7. Khan, U., Pegios, M., D’Andrea, J., Hughes-Miller, Z., Kazemi, H., Wells, S. C., Moore, R. J., Cole, S. J., Cornish, A., & Laugesen, R. (2024). Distributed hydrological modelling for Great Barrier Reef catchments to simulate streamflows for input into marine models. In Shaping the future, Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium 2024 (HWRS2024), Melbourne, Australia (Extended Abstract, 3 pp., ISBN 978-1-925627-89-3). Conference
  8. Turner, S., Hannaford, J., Barker, L. J., Suman, G., Killeen, A., Armitage, R., Chan, W., Davies, H., Griffin, A., Kumar, A., Dixon, H., Albuquerque, M. T. D., Almeida Ribeiro, N., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Amoussou, E., Arheimer, B., Asano, Y., Berezowski, T., Bodian, A., Boutaghane, H., Capell, R., Dakhlaoui, H., Daňhelka, J., Do, H. X., Ekkawatpanit, C., El Khalki, E. M., Fleig, A. K., Fonseca, R., Giraldo-Osorio, J. D., Goula, A. B. T., Hanel, M., Hodgkins, G., Horton, S., Kan, C., Kingston, D. G., Laaha, G., Laugesen, R., Lopes, W., Mager, S., Markonis, Y., Mediero, L., Midgley, G., Murphy, C., O’Connor, P., Pedersen, A. I., Pham, H. T., Piniewski, M., Rachdane, M., Renard, B., Saidi, M. E., Schmocker-Fackel, P., Stahl, K., Thyer, M., Toucher, M., Tramblay, Y., Uusikivi, J., Venegas-Cordero, N., Visessri, S., Watson, A., Westra, S., & Whitfield, P. H. (2024). *Global hydrological dataset of daily streamflow data from the Reference Observatory of Basins for International hydrological climate change detection (ROBIN), 1863–2022* [Dataset]. NERC Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/3b077711-f183-42f1-bac6-c892922c81f4 Dataset
  9. Laugesen, R., Thyer, M., McInerney, D., & Kavetski, D. (2023). Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: Application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27(4), 873–893. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023 Journal
  10. McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Woldemeskel, F., Tuteja, N., & Kuczera, G. (2022). Seamless streamflow forecasting at daily to monthly scales: MuTHRE lets you have your cake and eat it too. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26, 5669–5683. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022 Journal
  11. McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Woldemeskel, F., Tuteja, N., & Kuczera, G. (2021). Improving the reliability of sub‑seasonal forecasts of high and low flows by using a flow‑dependent non‑parametric model. Water Resources Research, 57(11), e2020WR029317. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029317 Journal
  12. McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Woldemeskel, F., Tuteja, N., & Kuczera, G. (2021). Improving sub‑seasonal streamflow forecasts across flow regimes. In MODSIM2021, 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 616–622). https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.k5.mcinerney Conference
  13. Thyer, M., McInerney, D., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Woldemeskel, F., Tuteja, N., & Kuczera, G. (2021). Advances in subseasonal streamflow forecasting: An overview. In MODSIM2021, 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 623–629). https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.k5.thyer Conference
  14. Khan, U., Cook, F. J., Laugesen, R., Hasan, M. M., Plastow, K., Amirthanathan, G. E., Bari, M. A., & Tuteja, N. K. (2020). Development of catchment water quality models within a realtime status and forecast system for the Great Barrier Reef. Environmental Modelling & Software, 132, 104790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104790 Journal
  15. McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Tuteja, N., & Kuczera, G. (2020). Multi‑temporal hydrological residual error modelling for seamless sub‑seasonal streamflow forecasting. Water Resources Research, 56(11), e2019WR026979. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026979 Journal
  16. Tuteja, M., Khan, U., Amirthanathan, G. E., Bari, M. A., Kociuba, G., Laugesen, R., & Tuteja, N. K. (2019). Australian coastal catchment river discharge dataset for marine reanalysis modelling and forecasting application. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2019), Canberra, Australia. Conference
  17. Khan, U., Wells, S. C., Hapuarachchi, H. A. P., Cole, S. J., Hasan, M., Laugesen, R., Moore, R. J., Bari, M., & Tuteja, N. K. (2019). Streamflow simulations for gauged and ungauged catchments of the Great Barrier Reef region using a distributed hydrological model. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2019), Canberra, Australia. Conference
  18. Kabir, A., Hasan, M., Hapuarachchi, H. A. P., Zhang, X. S., Liyanage, J., Gammage, N., Bennett, J. C., & Tuteja, N. K. (2018). Evaluation of multi‑model rainfall forecasts for the national 7‑day ensemble streamflow forecasting service. In Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (HWRS) 2018, Melbourne, Australia. Conference
  19. Khan, U., Wells, S. C., Hapuarachchi, P., Cole, S. J., Amirthanathan, G., Laugesen, R., Hasan, M. M., Gamage, N., MacDonald, A., Moore, R. J., Bari, M., & Tuteja, N. K. (2018, December 3–8). Forecasting freshwater discharges to the Great Barrier Reef using semi‑distributed and distributed hydrological models. In Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (HWRS) 2018, Melbourne, Australia. Conference
  20. Zangmo, S., Laugesen, R., O’Toole, J. M., & Gyeltshen, K. (2018). Cloze as a measure of specialist language difficulties: Write‑in or multiple choice? Bhutan Journal of Research & Development, 7, 26–31. Journal
  21. Brassington, G., Tuteja, N., Colberg, F., Sandery, P., Sakov, P., Sakova, I., Laugesen, R., Brinkman, R., Tonin, H., Bari, M., Stuart, G., & Treleaven, J. (2017). eReefs: An integrated catchment and coastal forecasting system for the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland coast. In *Australasian Coasts & Ports 2017: Working with Nature* (pp. 166–171). Conference
  22. Laugesen, R., Khan, U., Amirthananthan, G., Cook, F. J., Hasan, M., Hapuarachchi, P., Plastow, K., Kent, D., Bari, M., & Tuteja, N. K. (2017). Forecasts of streamflow and water quality for catchments contributing to the Great Barrier Reef. In Proceedings of the 6th Queensland Coastal Conference, Queensland, Australia. Conference
  23. Laugesen, R. M., Tuteja, N. K., Amirthanathan, G. E., Kent, D. M., Hasan, M. M., Khan, U., & Bari, M. A. (2017). Forecasts and simulations of river water quantity and quality caused by Tropical Cyclone Debbie over Fitzroy River Basin. In Proceedings of the 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. Conference
  24. Cook, F. J., Khan, U., Laugesen, R., Amirthanathan, G., Tuteja, N. K., & Bari, M. A. (2017). Concepts, philosophy and methods for development of a general linear statistical model for river water quality. In Proceedings of the 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. Conference
  25. Zhang, X. S., Amirthanathan, G. E., Bari, M. A., Laugesen, R. M., Shin, D., Kent, D. M., Macdonald, A. M., Turner, M. E., & Tuteja, N. K. (2016). How streamflow has changed across Australia since the 1950s: Evidence from the network of hydrologic reference stations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(9), 3947–3965. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3947-2016 Journal
  26. Hapuarachchi, P., Kabir, A., Zhang, S., Tuteja, N. K., Enever, D., Kent, D., Bari, M., Shin, D., Laugesen, R., & Amirthanathan, G. (2016). Development of an operational system for the 7‑day streamflow forecast service in Australia. In OzWater’16 Conference Proceedings. Conference
  27. Zangmo, S., Laugesen, R., & O’Toole, J. M. (2016, May 26–27). Cloze as a measure of specialist language difficulties: Write‑in or multiple choice? Spring Research Convention, Samtse College of Education, Royal University of Bhutan, Samtse, Bhutan (Research Abstracts, p. 23). Conference
  28. Lerat, J., Schepen, A., Laugesen, R., Khan, U., Pickett‑Heaps, C., Shin, D., & Wang, Q. J. (2015). Value of ensemble merging for seasonal streamflow forecasts. In Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Conference
  29. Shin, D., MacDonald, A., Kent, D., Hapuarachchi, P., Plastow, K., Laugesen, R., Pickett‑Heaps, C., Lerat, J., Kabir, A., & Tuteja, N. K. (2015). Operational modelling system development for short‑term and seasonal streamflow forecasting services. In Proceedings of the 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium. Conference
  30. Lerat, J., Pickett‑Heaps, C. A., Shin, D., Zhou, S., Feikema, P., Khan, U., Laugesen, R., Tuteja, N. K., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., & Kavetski, D. (2015). Dynamic streamflow forecasts within an uncertainty framework for 100 catchments in Australia. In Proceedings of the 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium. Conference
  31. Lerat, J., Tuteja, N., Shin, D., Laugesen, R., MacDonald, A., Khan, U., Kent, D., & Pickett‑Heaps, C. (2014). Driving a hydrological model with downscaled climate forecasts for seasonal streamflow forecasting. In Proceedings of the International River Symposium. Conference
  32. Shin, D., Laugesen, R., Kabir, A., MacDonald, A., Kent, D., Le, B., & Tuteja, N. K. (2013). POAMA climate forecasts for seasonal streamflow forecasting. In Observing, Seventh CAWCR Workshop: Estimating and Forecasting Rainfall—From Science to Applications. Conference
  33. Shin, D., Tuteja, N. K., Zhou, S., Schepen, A., Perkins, J., Kabir, A., Kent, D., Laugesen, R., Le, B., Wilson, T., Hawksworth, C., MacDonald, A., Jayasuriya, D., & Feikema, P. M. (2013). Seasonal hydrologic forecasting for water resources management. In AGU Chapman Conference. Conference
  34. Wethasinghe, C., Tuteja, N. K., & Laugesen, R. (2013). Dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasting approach: Evaluation of rainfall‑runoff model performances. In Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Conference
  35. Shin, D., Laugesen, R., Kabir, A., Tuteja, N. K., MacDonald, A., Kent, D., & Le, B. (2013). Rainfall–runoff modelling with downscaled rainfall forecasts for a seasonal streamflow forecast service. In Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Conference
  36. Kabir, A., Laugesen, R., Shin, D., Tuteja, N. K., MacDonald, A., Kent, D., & Le, B. (2013). Improving operational seasonal streamflow forecasts using the dynamic modelling approach. In Proceedings of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society. Conference
  37. MacDonald, A., Kent, D., Laugesen, R., Kabir, A., Tuteja, N. K., Schepen, A., Wilson, T., Le, B., & Shin, D. (2013). WAFARi 2.0: Upgrade of an operational modelling system for the seasonal streamflow forecasting service of the Bureau of Meteorology. In Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Conference
  38. Tuteja, N. K., Wang, Q. J., Kuczera, G., Shin, D., & Laugesen, R. (2012). Application of seasonal climate forecasting to hydrologic forecasting and water resource management. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate, Water and Policy, Korea. Conference
  39. Tuteja, N. K., Shin, D., Laugesen, R., Khan, U., Shao, Q., Wang, E., Li, M., Zheng, H., Kuczera, G. K., Kavetski, D., Evin, G., Thyer, M., MacDonald, A., Le, B., & Chia, T. (2011). Experimental evaluation of the dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasting approach in Australian water supply catchments. In Proceedings of the Australian Water Association. Conference
  40. Laugesen, R., Tuteja, N. K., Shin, D., Chia, T., & Khan, U. (2011). Seasonal streamflow forecasting with a workflow‑based dynamic hydrologic modelling approach. In Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Conference
  41. Tuteja, N. K., Shin, D., Laugesen, R., Khan, U., Shao, Q., Wang, E., Li, M., Zheng, H., Kuczera, G. K., Kavetski, D., Evin, G., Thyer, M., MacDonald, A., Le, B., & Chia, T. (2011). Experimental evaluation of the dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasting approach. Bureau of Meteorology. Technical report
  42. O’Toole, J. M., & Laugesen, R. (2011). Developing specialist language styles: Research and application. Boraga Academic. ISBN 978-1-74130-951-5 Book
  43. Furst, J. E., Laugesen, R., Dastoor, P., & McNeil, C. (2002). Photoluminescence in conjugated polymers. In Proceedings of the 15th Biennial Congress of the Australian Institute of Physics. Conference

External research profile at ORCID (guaranteed to be out of date).